Clinton holds 9 point lead over Trump in Virginia

Published October 11, 2016 by Robert Powell, III

Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a 9 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia,  according to The Roanoke College Poll.

Clinton was favored by 45 percent of respondents, compared with 36 percent for Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson trails with 7 percent of likely voters, while Independent Evan McMullin and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each have 1 percent. Ten percent of likely voters remain undecided.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton's lead swells to 13 points (51-38 percent). Clinton led by 7 percentage points in the September Roanoke College Poll (44-37 percent).

The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate and before the second debate and the release of the videotape of Donald Trump making vulgar comments about women.

“Hillary Clinton's lead appears steady,” Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, said in a statement. “Donald Trump is still unable to consolidate support among Republicans, and it is difficult to see how recent events help him in that regard. Even if he brings those reluctant Republicans 'back home,' he still needs to expand his support among independents and moderates. Those are both tall tasks.”

Clinton leads among ideological moderates (50-26 percent) and is now tied with Trump among Independents (35-35 percent). Clinton claims the support of 91 percent of Democrats, while Trump has fallen below 8-in-10 Republicans (76 percent). Eleven percent of Republicans are undecided compared to only 4 percent of Democrats. Most (64 percent) of those who are undecided claim they are not leaning toward any candidate.

Both candidates still are viewed unfavorably by voters. Clinton's ratings (39 percent favorable; 48 percent unfavorable) and those of Trump (29 percent favorable; 57 percent unfavorable) are statistically unchanged from a month ago.

Vice-presidential candidate and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine is viewed favorably by a plurality (48 percent ) of respondents. The Republican VP candidate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, has a favorable rating of 34 percent, but one-third (32 percent) still don't know enough about him to have an opinion. 

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 814 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 2 and Oct. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.